2.1       Purpose of the Mission

The Macro-Fiscal Unit of the Ministry of Finance is not yet operational. Libya prepares and executes its budget without a documented revenue and expenditure projection base, without scenario analysis on oil price and production, and without a medium-term fiscal framework. The absence of this function is the single most binding constraint on evidence-based budget preparation identified in the PFM Legal and Operational Diagnostic Report.

The purpose of this mission is to make the macro-fiscal function work in practice: to give the Unit a mandate, a staffed structure and a work calendar; to assemble and document the data it needs; to build with its staff a first projection model they can run themselves; and to train them in its use. The mission prepares the ground for the first medium-term macro-fiscal, fiscal and budget frameworks (MTMF, MTFF, MTBF) planned for the following phase.

2.2       Strategic Context

The inception phase of INVEST4Libya (January – September 2026) delivered, for each component, a validated legal and operational diagnostic and a sequenced reform roadmap, developed with Libyan counterparts and confirmed through onsite validation workshops. The implementation phase operationalises these roadmaps: it translates the diagnostic findings into technical assistance, regulatory production, and capacity building delivered directly to the Libyan institutions concerned.

Libya's reform trajectory remains defined by structural dependence on hydrocarbons, recurrent fiscal shocks, and the fragmentation of public-sector authority. In the current institutional context, the enactment of new primary legislation is not achievable; reform support must therefore concentrate on instruments within the existing legal framework — regulations, ministerial instructions, circulars, manuals, and operational procedures — sequenced to deliver early, confidence-building results without destabilising macroeconomic balances.

3.1       Project's Objectives

Expertise France is the French public agency for international development cooperation. It is a subsidiary of the Agence Française de Développement (AFD) Group and the second-largest agency of its kind in Europe. Its mission is to strengthen public policies in partner countries in a sustainable way. Working alongside public actors, civil society, and the private sector, Expertise France designs and implements projects that stimulate innovation and reinforce their actions to benefit everyone. Through its expertise in governance, security, climate, health, education, entrepreneurship, and cultural and creative industries, Expertise France contributes to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in over 140 countries, with public funding from French and European sources.

Since 2016, Expertise France has supported Libya's economic recovery by empowering the private sector, digitalising economic services, facilitating access to finance, supporting economic policy reforms, and fostering employability through the reinforcement of skills.

The INVEST4LIBYA project, launched by the European Union, aims at supporting Libya's economic institutions to strengthen the diversification of the Libyan economy and public finance management. The Overall Objective/Impact of this action is the following: strengthen the Public Finance System and enhance investments for the green and digital transition.

The Specific Objectives (Outcomes) of this action are as follows:

-    SO 1. The capacity to design and implement targeted public financial management reforms is strengthened;

-    SO 2. The governance of the financial sector, the legal and regulatory framework for enhancing investments, with a specific focus on the green and digital sectors, is reinforced;

-    SO 3. Entrepreneurship, financial inclusion and green and digital innovation are enhanced.

3.2       Mission’s Objectives

The mission pursues four objectives:

-    Establish the institutional basis of the Macro-Fiscal Unit — mandate, staffing profile, internal procedures, reporting lines and annual work calendar — agreed with the Ministry of Finance.

-    Assemble a documented macro-fiscal data base drawn from available national sources, with an updating routine that assigns responsibility and frequency.

-    Deliver a working macro-fiscal projection model covering oil and non-oil revenue, expenditure, the fiscal balance and its financing, with scenario and sensitivity analysis on oil price and production.

-    Build the capacity of Unit staff to operate the model and produce macro-fiscal analysis, through training and on-the-job coaching over one forecasting run.

3.3       Scope of Work

The expert will perform the following tasks, with the Ministry of Finance teams and under the technical direction of the Key Technical Expert of Component 1.

1. Institutional set-up of the Macro-Fiscal Unit. Review the current arrangements and draft, with the Ministry, the Unit's mandate, staffing profile and required skill set, internal working procedures, position within the Ministry's structure and reporting lines, and annual macro-fiscal work calendar aligned with the budget calendar.

2. Data base and updating routine. Inventory the fiscal, oil-sector and macroeconomic data available from the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank of Libya, the National Oil Corporation and the statistical authorities; assess coverage, periodicity and reliability; identify gaps and the proxies to be used; assemble a structured baseline data file; and set out in writing the updating routine, specifying source, responsible unit, format and frequency for each series.

3. Macro-fiscal projection model. Build with the Unit's staff an Excel-based model covering oil revenue (price, production, entitlement), non-oil revenue, expenditure by year and by economic classification, the fiscal balance and its financing. The model includes a baseline and at least one alternative scenario, a sensitivity analysis on oil price and production, and documented assumptions. Structure, conventions and formulas are explained in a bilingual user guide.

4. Training and coaching. Design and deliver two training workshops for Macro-Fiscal Unit and Budget Department staff covering macro-fiscal analysis and the use of the model, with materials in Arabic and English; then coach the team on the job through one full projection run, from data update to output.

5. Sequencing for the next phase. Assess the Unit's capacity at the end of the assignment and set out, in the final report, what remains to be done and in what order to reach the first MTMF, MTFF and MTBF with expenditure ceilings, the fiscal risk annex on the sensitivity of the budget to oil price and production, and the periodic macro-fiscal report for decision-makers.

The assignment is carried out under the Component 1 reform roadmap validated with the Libyan counterparts in September 2026. The roadmap sets the activities, their sequencing and the institutions concerned. The expert works within it and does not reopen the diagnostic on which it is based.

The following principles govern the way the work is performed:

-    Co-production, not substitution. Each technical product is prepared with the designated counterpart focal points, using Libyan data and Libyan procedures. Products prepared without counterpart involvement are not accepted.

-    Tools paired with transfer. Every technical product is accompanied by a training or on-the-job coaching sequence, so that national staff can use and maintain it once the assignment ends.

-    National ownership of the pace. The sequencing is led by the Libyan authorities. Decisions on the adoption and application of any measure rest with the competent national institutions. The expert advises; it does not commit the counterpart.

-    Efficient use of onsite time. Missions are reserved for working sessions, training and validation. Data collection and drafting that can be performed remotely are performed remotely.

-    Donor coordination. The expert takes account of ongoing IMF and World Bank activity in the same field and flags any overlap to the Key Technical Expert of Component 1 as soon as it is identified.

4.1       Quality Requirements

All deliverables must meet the following requirements:

-    Build on the 2026 diagnostic and agreed reform roadmap; do not repeat a broad diagnostic unless a specific factual update is required for the assigned task.

-    Ensure coherence and complementarity with relevant technical work undertaken under Component 2, particularly where public financial management, macro-fiscal, budgeting and financial-sector reforms intersect.

-    Submit concise, evidence-based deliverables in clear professional English.

-    All figures, assumptions and legal references are sourced. Where Libyan data are incomplete, the gap and the proxy used are stated explicitly.

-    Models and templates are delivered unlocked and fully documented, with visible formulas, no external links and no hidden sheets, so that they remain usable and maintainable by national staff.

-    Deliverables are operational products — procedures, models, templates, manuals, guidance. Literature reviews or generic international comparisons are not accepted in place of operational products.

-    EF format and the EU disclaimer are respected. Deliverables that do not comply are returned before technical review.

5.1.1         Governance Approach

The governance and validation arrangements of the implementation phase are designed to combine technical quality, clear accountability and stakeholder ownership. The validation process will ensure that project deliverables are coherent, evidence-based, adapted to the Libyan context, and aligned with the objectives of INVEST4Libya and the expectations of the relevant partners.

The governance system rests on three complementary layers:

-    Expertise France (EF) – ensuring methodological rigour, operational discipline, and donor compliance;

-    Libyan Technical Piloting Committee – ensuring political legitimacy, contextual realism, and national ownership;

-    European Union Delegation – ensuring policy alignment, coherence with the EU Special Measure 2024, and donor visibility.

5.2       Internal Coordination and Communication Mechanisms

All official deliverables (reports, notes, briefs, presentations, models and templates) shall be submitted to the Invest4Libya Technical Coordinator. Technical clearance is issued by the Key Technical Expert of Component 1; final validation rests with the Invest4Libya Project Leader.

The expert takes part in a bi-weekly coordination call with the Component 1 team and submits a short written progress update (maximum one page: work performed, days consumed, blocking points, next steps) before each call. Any difficulty in accessing counterparts or data is reported without delay and not at the deliverable submission stage.

The following provisions apply.

Acceptance of deliverables. Expertise France provides written comments within ten (10) working days of receipt. The expert submits the revised version within ten (10) working days of receiving the comments. A deliverable that remains non-compliant after the second round may be rejected, in which case the corresponding days are not payable and the deliverable may be reassigned.

Working days and invoicing. Working days are invoiced against accepted deliverables only. The expert submits a monthly timesheet stating the days worked, the activity and the deliverable concerned. Days that do not correspond to a deliverable accepted by Expertise France, or that exceed the allocation set out in this document without prior written authorisation, are not payable.

Participation. Participation in the workshops, coordination meetings and validation sessions scheduled under this assignment is a contractual obligation. Absence without prior written agreement from the Key Technical Expert of Component 1 results in the non-acceptance of the days concerned.

Duration, performance review and extension. The initial period runs for a minimum of six (6) months from the date of signature. A performance review is conducted in the final month of that period, covering technical quality, timeliness, counterpart engagement, responsiveness and compliance with reporting obligations. Any extension of the assignment, and any additional allocation of working days, is decided on the basis of that review.

Intellectual property. All deliverables, data files, models and materials produced under this assignment are the property of Expertise France. They may not be reused, published or transferred to third parties without prior written authorisation.