1.   Objectives & Scope of Work

The purpose of these Terms of reference is to hire an independent and international consultant or team of consultants (“the Consultant”) to perform the following activities over the next 2 years:

1.     PBL (Policy Based Loan) Phase 2 Monitoring Reports before each TASC - Technical Assistance Steering Committee (summaries, presentations and reports in English and Russian):

a.     1^st report due in June 2025;

b.     2^nd report due in June 2026.

2.     PBL Strategic environmental and social assessment (SESA) to evaluate the anticipated and/or observed E&S impacts following the implementation of PBL Phase 1 & 2 policy actions (summaries, presentations and reports in English and Russian).

3.     Evaluation report of the PBL Phase 2 in order to assess the project's performance and propose recommendations for a possible PBL Phase 3 (summaries, presentations and reports in English and Russian):

a.     Inception report (detailing the evaluation design, work plan, and methodology) due in April 2026;

b.     Final Report due in June 2026.

Kick off meeting

Latest 15 working days after commencement of the activities, a kick-off meeting shall be arranged by the Consultant involving all Executing Entities, and on the donors’ side: EF/AFD and ADB (to be confirmed).

The objective of this kick-off meeting shall be to:

•                Introduce the teams;

•                Confirm communication channels;

•                Present the envisaged Consultant’s workplan;

•                Exchange information, data, documentation, document request list; and

•                Plan for stakeholder meetings.

The Consultant will prepare minutes of meeting including a workplan and distribute to participants.

The Consultant shall proactively arrange for calls/meetings with the stakeholders throughout the whole assignment in order to obtain data, documents, reports, feedbacks and comments, inform about findings and agree on on-site activities.

Activity n°1 - PBL Phase 2 Monitoring Reports

Each annual report (mid-2025 and mid-2026) will consist of the following parts:

1.     Overview of electrical energy sector highlights in the country over the last year (max. 3 pages).

2.     Detailed list of all the legal texts related to the electrical energy sector approved over the last year, with a technical analysis for each one (max. 5 pages).

3.     For each area in the matrix, a dedicated section for each of the following subjects (max. 5 pages per area) :

a.     Progress made in the follow-up points as listed in the Matrix;

b.     Progress made towards achievement of the four mid-term objectives listed in the Matrix (“Outcome Indicators”);

c.     Based on (i) the progress made and (ii) the impacts (technical, legal, environmental, social and organisational) assessed, proposals for policy actions & technical assistance activities to be implemented by the Government in the future.

4.     Conclusion and general recommendations (beyond the 4 areas) on the energy sector in Uzbekistan (max. 2 pages).

Activity n°2 - Strategic environmental and social assessment

The overall objective of the PBL Strategic environmental and social assessment (SESA) is to ensure that the PBL’s actions and activities are designed and implemented in a manner that maximizes potential environmental and social benefits while avoiding, minimizing or otherwise mitigating environmental and social harm.

Findings of the assessment will be used for discussing the definition, formulation and implementation of measures or technical assistance to improve environmental and social performance/management outcomes of the PBL and to avoid any negative environmental and social effects, specifically harm to vulnerable groups.

The PBL SESA shall include the following activities:

1)    E&S legal framework in Uzbekistan and gap analysis

•                Identify relevant national stakeholders.

•                Collect existing E&S Policies and national regulatory framework.

•                Collect the results of similar activities conducted by other IFI.

•                Analyse how current practices align with selected international standards for E&S, identifying key areas of non-compliance or partial compliance.

•                Assess national stakeholder’s institutional capacity/responsibility to effectively anticipate, define and manage the expected E&S risks/impacts (see 2. Below) as well as to plan, monitor and report on E&S mitigation measures.

2)    Assessment of E&S impacts/risks related to the specific public policy actions of PBL Phase 1 and 2

•                Analyse and comment the screening conducted by AFD on the potential future E&S impacts (negative and positive) of each public policy action in phase 2.

•                Review the following PBL’s policy actions by identifying and assessing the direct and indirect E&S risks and potential future positive impacts:

o   2.7

§  Look in particular the redistributive effects of the electricity tariff change and the potential positive impact on society of reducing energy subsidies.

§  Propose monitoring indicators to track the impact of this policy action

o   2.14

§  In particular, analyse the involvement of civil society in the development of this long-term, structuring strategy

•                Identify the existing safeguards linked to the identified direct and indirect risks and impacts. This will be done through:

o  An analysis/a mapping of regulatory and legal E&S framework in Uzbekistan (e.g., laws, regulation, procedures, standards etc.);

o  An analysis of existing institutional practices, institutional policies and management procedures in the context of E&S management;

3)    Recommendations

•                Propose actions (as part of a possible technical assistance) to strengthen the institutions for a better management of the E&S framework.

•                Formulate concrete mitigation measures for direct and indirect E&S significant risks for policy actions 2.7 & 2.14, in the form of new policy actions, to be included into the policy matrix of the next phase of the PBL. The formulation of these measures should be done by paying a particular attention to their relevance, their acceptability towards all parties as well as the PBL’s overall design and approach;

The PBL SESA will be based on publically available information as well as documents provided by AFD and the relevant stakeholders.

Documents may include:

• Information about investments and/or other interventions to be enhanced by the policy reforms under the PBL;
• Documentation on relevant national legislation ;
• Documentation on the various sectors’ stakeholder’s E&S management system and practice;
• Assessment of the various sectors, including strategic E&S Assessments; and
• Other relevant documentation.

The PBL SESA will be performed in line with the following standards (non-exhaustive list):

• World Bank Development Policy Financing, July 2017;
• World Bank Policy (July 2015): Program-for-Results Financing, Catalogue Number: OPCS5.04-POL.01, OPCS;
• World Bank Directive (July 2015): Program-for-Results Financing, Catalogue Number: OPCS5.04-DIR.01, OPCS;
• WB E&S Safeguard Standards;

·       For aspects related to labor, International Labor Organization (ILO) core labor standards.

The PBL SESA Report will be concise, focusing on tables and flow-charts and include the following main content (not necessarily in this order and outline):

1.     Executive Summary (max. 3 pages);

2.     Objective & methodological approach with short summary of key activities conducted during the assignment (max. 2 pages);

3.     E&S legal framework in Uzbekistan (max. 3 pages);

4.     Gap analysis of the E&S practices of electrical energy sector stakeholders in Uzbekistan in relation to available international standards (max. 2 pages);

5.     Assessment of impacts/risks related to the specific public policy actions (max. 2 pages per policy action);

6.     Recommendations Table (policy actions and TA) (max. 3 pages);

7.     Conclusion (max. 1 page).

Activity n°3 - Evaluation report of the PBL Phase 2

The evaluation is designed to assess the extent to which the inputs provided by AFD/EF in the framework of public policy budget financing (funds, public policy dialogue, and technical assistance) have had an impact on the formulation and/or implementation of public policy in the energy sector and on the public institutions supported.

The evaluation therefore covers not only financial support but also all technical assistance activities, whatever their source of funding. The nature, scope and modalities of the dialogue on the public policies concerned also fall within the scope of the support provided and will have to be the subject of specific attention during the evaluation process.

Given the nature of the operation (notably budget financing), AFD's contribution can only be evaluated taking into account the financing and technical assistance provided by other donors and the Government of Uzbekistan.

The evaluation covers the period between 2023 and 2026. The period covered is not limited to the disbursement period and corresponds to the period of dialogue, implementation of technical assistance and monitoring of results.

As these terms of reference are drafted several months before the activity n°3 is due to be performed, it is understood that it will be possible to modify/detail the focus of the evaluation when it starts. This will be done in agreement with the Consultant and Expertise France (in discussion with AFD).

The methodological framework is set out in the Annex 3.

The evaluation report shall cover the following topics:

1)    Relevance of the choice of PBL tool and its consistency with the context

The Consultant will assess the appropriateness of the action carried out with regard to the objectives, intentions and issues at the outset (relevance of the intervention at its origin). More specifically, the Consultant will examine the relevance of the support method chosen for this intervention (PBL) compared with other support methods (project approach, programme approach).

Specifically, the Consultant will have to check that the financial instrument used is appropriate to the borrower's financial situation.

2)     Relevance and quality of the project approach and its implementation

The Consultant will pay particular attention to the internal coherence of the intervention. This will involve assessing whether the three types of input (funds, technical assistance, dialogue on public policies) are consistent with each other in terms of achieving the objectives.

It will also assess the external coherence of the intervention (consistency with actions undertaken by other players, in particular bilateral and/or multilateral donors).

3)     AFD's contribution to the achievement of direct and indirect outputs and effects on institutions

(i) The Consultant will first assess the direct outputs of the intervention:

- Predictable availability of funds. In particular, the Consultant may analyse whether the budget allocated to the energy sector has increased as a result of the PBL;

- Better coordination of public policy dialogue and technical assistance: to what extent has the PBL contributed to the coordination of support for capacity development and to effective and efficient public policy dialogue between the main stakeholders (government, donors, civil society, private sector, etc.).

- Better alignment with government strategies and national procedures.

(ii) The Consultant will assess the indirect effects of the intervention: improved processes for formulating and implementing public policies, strengthening of public sector institutions, improvements in terms of governance, and increased quantity and quality of goods and services provided by the public sector.

Assessing the effects on the formulation and implementation of public policies will be based in particular on monitoring the public policy matrix (Activity n°2). This will involve: assessing the implementation of policy actions and their effect on the formulation and/or implementation of the public policies they target. The Consultant will produce an overall assessment of the implementation of the policy actions and will deepen their analysis on the sectors/areas of concentration of AFD's support and will assess how the matrix was relevant and well positioned to achieve the expected results.

In addition to analysing the matrix and achieving the indicators, the Consultant will have to assess and explain the extent to which the intervention, and more specifically the public policy dialogue and technical assistance activities, have contributed to changes in public policies and institutions. The relevance, effectiveness and effects of the dialogue and technical assistance will therefore be analysed.

4)     Efficiency of the operation

The Consultant will analyse the efficiency of the operation. This will involve:

- Assess the amount of the AFD loan;

- Assessing the amount of the technical assistance.

To do this, the Consultant will have to analyse the time spent by AFD in appraising and monitoring the implementation of the operation (a balance sheet to be provided by AFD) and account for the financial resources mobilised in the form of subsidies (subsidy for the TA).

5)     AFD's added value (including TA)

In this section, the Consultant will assess the specific contribution and added value of AFD's action in relation to other interventions or methods available to the Uzbek government. It will be necessary to make a critical judgement, which will highlight the strengths and weaknesses of AFD's action. This analysis may focus on the characteristics of the financial resources provided by AFD, the content of the dialogue and technical assistance or any other issue identified by the Consultant.

6)     Evolution of energy sector results (between 2023 and 2026)

In this section, the Consultant is expected to document the main sectoral developments, without seeking to link them to the public policy supported by the PBL. To do this, the Consultant will retrieve existing and available secondary data linked to the results and impact indicators and analyse them in order to document the main sectoral developments.

7)     Impact of PBL on energy sector results

The Consultant will identify how the PBL has contributed to the results identified.

8)     French influence in the energy sector

The Consultant will analyse the effects of the PBL on AFD's positioning in the energy sector and the benefits of public policy actions and technical assistance activities for French companies in the energy sector.

The evaluation report will consist of the following parts:

1.     Executive Summary (max. 3 pages).

2.     Justification, objective and methodology of the evaluation (max. 1 page).

3.     PBL Evaluation (max. 15 pages):

a.     Relevance of the choice of PBL tool and its consistency with the context;

b.     Relevance and quality of the project approach and its implementation;

c.     Direct and indirect outputs;

d.     Efficiency of the operation;

e.     AFD's added value;

f.      Evolution of energy sector results;

g.     Impact of PBL on energy sector results;

h.     French influence in the energy sector.

4.     Summary table of the above criteria assessment (max. 1 page).

5.     Lessons learnt and recommandations (max. 2 pages).

2.   Provisional schedule & Deliverables