1.       General objective

The objective of this assignment is to produce a focused, market-aware, pre-inception scoping of Liberia's wood processing sector that:

• Provides an evidence-based diagnosis of the small number of genuinely active formal processors and a benchmark sample of informal chainsaw millers;
• Segments and prioritises the domestic, MRU and ECOWAS market opportunities for processed wood products;
• Maps the potential implementation partner landscape, including coordination requirements with parallel donor-funded interventions;
• Produces a clear handover package that the implementing partner can use as the starting point for its technical inception work

2.       Specific Objectives

The assignment will focus on the following analytical pillars:

1. Demand-led market analysis (domestic, MRU and ECOWAS)
a.       Analyse the principal segments of demand for processed wood products across:

• Domestic markets in Liberia (construction, furniture, institutional procurement, etc.) explicitly assessing whether the domestic market represents a viable commercial pathway forward for Liberian processors, and clearly stating the rationale either way;
• Regional markets within the Mano River Union (with a particular focus on Côte d'Ivoire) and the broader ECOWAS region (with The Gambia and Senegal as priority cross-border opportunities).
• The European market should be acknowledged as a longer-term, EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR)-conditional opportunity to be explored at a later stage, rather than as an immediate target of this scoping.

b.       Identify and analyse potentially high-growth product segments such as sawn wood, furniture components, wood panels and engineered wood. 

c.       Analyse price structures, substitution patterns, and import competition. As part of this demand-led analysis, the consultant(s) should review the principal wood and wood-product imports into Liberia and identify those product categories with realistic potential for local manufacture (import-substitution opportunities). This is intended as a practical filter for the product–market pairs above and should draw on customs data, importer interviews and observed retail availability.

d.       Reference EUDR, FSC/PEFC certification standards, and broader Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) and traceability requirements as constraints and opportunities for sustainable trade.

2. Operator-level diagnosis
a.       Conduct 15 to 20 structured interviews and key informant interviews in total. The interview sample should be focused rather than broad, concentrating on:

• The 3 to 4 genuinely active operational units identified through the LiberTrace registration system as economically meaningful,
• A small sample of informal chainsaw millers to benchmark formal versus informal economics,
• 2 to 3 Community Forest Management Bodies (CFMBs) to understand current forest management practices, existing economic activities, organizational capacity, constraints to commercialization, and the potential for developing commercially viable community-based forestry enterprises.
• A small number of downstream actors (buyers, traders, institutional procurement officers) to triangulate demand-side signals.

b.       Analyse firm-level decision-making, perceived incentives, investment constraints, profitability thresholds, and willingness to formalise.

c.       Validate and refine the current understanding of the structure, scale, and economics of Liberia's wood processing sector.

The project has identified an initial set of market segments and operator categories that warrant further investigation, including export-oriented sawn timber producers, furniture and joinery enterprises, domestic sawmills, and community-based forestry initiatives with commercial potential. However, given the significant discrepancies that exist across available sector data, the study should place particular emphasis on validating the current structure, scale, and economics of the wood processing sector. Existing estimates suggest that the informal sector may account for three to four times the production volume of the formal sector, while domestic timber production is believed to significantly exceed export volumes. Available sources also indicate substantial price differentials between domestic and export-oriented products. However, these figures vary considerably across studies and stakeholders and should therefore not be treated as established facts. The consultant(s) will be expected to review, validate, and where necessary revise the available baseline information through field consultations, stakeholder interviews, and a review of existing studies. Particular attention should be given to:

• The relative size and structure of the formal and informal timber sectors;
• Production volumes and timber flows across domestic and export markets;
• The number, type, and operational status of wood processing enterprises;
• Employment levels, including formal and informal jobs;
• Price structures, margins, and competitiveness across market segments;
• Constraints related to quality, drying, traceability, certification, and market access;
• Existing financing mechanisms and investment gaps affecting MSMEs.
• The study should clearly identify areas where available evidence converges or diverges and provide a robust baseline assessment that can inform PSD Liberia's future interventions and the subsequent inception work of the implementing partner.

3. Unit economics and business case analysis
a.       Develop cost–revenue models for the operational units interviewed, identify margins, break-even points and productivity gaps. This analysis will be limited to the same small group of active operators (and their informal counterparts used for benchmarking) interviewed under Pillar 2. As such, the findings will provide an indicative picture of the operational economics of currently active businesses rather than a statistically representative assessment of the sector as a whole. Comparative observations between formal and informal models are particularly useful here.

4. Skills ecosystem and FTI capacity assessment
a.       Assess the current capacity of Liberia's skills development ecosystem to support a more competitive wood processing sector. Identify gaps and quick-win interventions that could support commercial upgrading and scaling, particularly in the areas of sawmilling, kiln-drying operations, secondary wood processing, machine maintenance, quality control, and furniture manufacturing.

b.       Identify the main technical, managerial, and entrepreneurial skills gaps affecting wood processing enterprises, including MSMEs, informal operators, and community-based forestry initiatives. Assess the extent to which existing TVET institutions, private training providers, business development services and industry actors are currently able to address these gaps.

c.       Assess the feasibility and potential value of establishing a Training-Processing Platform that combines practical skills development with production activities. 

More particularly, the consultant(s) should provide an initial feasibility lens on a proposal for a Training-Processing-Promotion (TPP) Platform - a Monrovia-based shared facility combining training delivery, shared processing equipment, prototyping and product showcasing. The assessment should consider: (a) the appropriateness of a single Monrovia hub versus a more distributed configuration that reaches primary processors in forest counties; (b) credible Liberian handover partners (public, private or hybrid) capable of taking over operations at project end; (c) indicative capital and recurrent cost implications and a plausible revenue model for sustainability beyond the project; and (d) complementarity with existing Forestry Development Authority (FDA), Forestry Training Institute (FTI) and other Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) infrastructure, to avoid duplication.

5. Light financial-landscape mapping
a.       Map the principal actors in Liberia's wood-sector financial landscape, including commercial banks, microfinance institutions, Development Finance Institutions (DFIs), and grant-based mechanisms. Identify the principal financing gaps and risk perceptions that constrain MSME-level investment in wood processing. This landscape mapping is intended to inform PSD Liberia’s implementing partner's later work.

6. Community-linkage and decent work analysis (anchored on the active operators)
a.       Examine how outgrower and community-linkage arrangements could be structured around the active formal operators identified under Pillar 2, with particular attention to:

• Linkages between Community Forest Management Associations (CFMAs), CFEs and downstream processors,
• The employment dimension - including the challenges these operators face in creating and sustaining decent, long-term jobs,
• Concrete opportunities to increase jobs for women and youth in value-addition activities (drying, grading, secondary processing, finishing), and
• Alignment with environmental sustainability principles (sustainable sourcing, resource efficiency, low-emission processing).

7. Identification of potential implementation partners and coordination requirements
a.       Identify the principal potential partners across the wood-sector ecosystem that PSD could mobilise. The mapping should include private sector actors, business associations, training institutions (including FTI), financial institutions, sector support organisations, donor-funded programmes, and government counterparts.

b.       Within this mapping, the consultant(s) must include an explicit coordination assessment of the World Bank's Liberia Sustainable Forest Economy Project (SFEP, P508345). The consultant should identify areas of overlap, division-of-labour opportunities, and concrete coordination touch-points with SFEP, so that the wood component of PSD Liberia avoids duplication and operates complementarily with the World Bank's parallel investment.

8. Initial gendered value chain map
As an explicit output integrated into the scoping report, develop an initial gendered value chain map showing where women, men and youth are currently positioned across the wood processing value chain, their respective roles, constraints and opportunities. This map will serve as a baseline reference for PSD Liberoa's later, fuller gender analysis.

9. Note on the FDA hub vision
The FDA's stated vision for forest processing hubs at Greenville, Buchanan and Royesville is not within the analytical scope of this scoping study. However, the consultant is asked to collect background information on the FDA hub vision and its current status during the in-country mission, and to include a short note in the handover document so that PSD Liberia can assess how its work could later link to or inform the hub vision.

a.       Expected Results and Deliverables

The assignment will produce three consolidated deliverables, designed to be useful, focused, and immediately actionable by the team and by the implementing partner. The deliverables are described below.

All deliverables will require validation by Expertise France and, where appropriate, by the EU Delegation, prior to finalisation.

                                                               i.      Timeline and Deliverables

                                                             ii.      Budget

The maximum available budget for this assignment is EUR 39,000 inclusive of all professional fees, travel costs, daily subsistence allowance, taxes, communications, and any other related expenses. Bidders are expected to propose a budget structure that fits within this ceiling.

Important note: These Terms of Reference remain subject to final validation by the relevant national stakeholders.