I.                    Assignment objectives

The primary purpose of this assignment is to provide Expertise France and the Government of Uzbekistan with the high-level coordination and program design capabilities required to operationalize a “Just transition” strategy, building upon the GETAP portfolio.

The assignment aims to:

•        coordinate existing activities and projects on the just transition, ensuring alignment between government ministries/institutions (economy, energy, employment, social protection) and harmonization of international donor efforts (Team Europe, WB, ADB, UN);

•        develop recommendations for policies, institutional setup, regulatory frameworks, and capacity building to mitigate the negative social and economic impacts of the transition on vulnerable groups; and to maximize the social co-benefits of the transition

•        develop a technical assistance program (programmatic design - “Service Offer”) to operationalize these recommendations with IFIs, proposing a final product ready for financing and implementation by Expertise France.

This assignment will comprise a combination of structured review of current policies, high-level stakeholder coordination, and the technical drafting of program formulation documents (Action Documents/ToRs). The assignment will be carried out in close liaison with the government ministries, international donors and development partners.

II.                  Detailed scope of work

The assignment will be implemented over a period of 12 months, requiring approximately 50-60 expert days. It is structured around three operational components.

Component 1: Strengthening governance and coordination

Objective: To build the “brain” of the Just Transition – a governance structure capable of managing complex trade-offs.

Tasks:

1. Revitalizing the green economy / climate change councils – the expert will provide high-level secretariat support to relevant interagency green economy / climate change councils:

•        review the current functioning of the councils` working groups. Are social ministries (health, labor, gender) attending? Are decisions evidence-based?

•        facilitate the establishment of a dedicated “Just Transition Task Force” within the councils. This body wouldbe co-chaired by National Agency of Social Protection, MEF, and the Ministry of Poverty Reduction and Employment to ensure balance between economic and social goals;

•        assess the current coordination between the national level and territorial level to identify missing coordination channels and support the experimentation and implementation of national-regional coordination mechanisms (Just Transition Platform, Territorial Just Transition Compacts etc.)  

•        assess current transparency, monitoring and evaluation framework on Just Transition policies and initiatives and strengthening roadmap

•        produce quarterly “decision notes” for the councils, summarizing key transition risks (upcoming tariff hikes, CBAM impacts, etc.) and proposing mitigation options.

2. The “Team Europe” Coordination Hub – to prevent fragmentation, the expert will act as the technical focal point for the EU`s “Team Europe Initiative” (TEI) on Green Transition:

•        conduct a benchmark on Just Transition public policies in Central Asia region to point out best practices and enhance regional cooperation

•        maintain a dynamic matrix of all donor interventions (WB, ADB, UN, GIZ, etc.) categorized by sector (energy, water, skills and vocational training, social protection, agriculture, employment) and region;

•        convene technical workshops to align donor methodologies;

•        identify opportunities for blended support, for example, linking EBRD`s private sector loans for green SMEs or ADB`s project with AFD`s technical assistance for women entrepreneurs.

3. Institutionalizing social dialogue

•        work with the Republican Tripartite Commission on Social and Labour Issues to develop a “Social Compact for Green Transition”. This involves drafting guidelines for how unions and employers should be involvedin decarbonization policies;

•        organize a bi-annual “Just Transition Civil Society Forum” to encourage a dynamic of co-constructing transition projects and initiatives with the first concerned. It would thus permit to gather feedback from NGOs, women`s groups, and Mahalla representatives, ensuring a bottom-up feedback loop to the green economy / climate change councils;

•        Strengthen the government’s capacity to identify successful local initiatives to inform just transition public policies.

Component 2: Policy recommendations and operationalization

Objective: To turn diagnostics into policy. The expert will use the data from the “Mapping” phase to design specific interventions:

Tasks:

1. Designing adaptive social protection mechanisms – building on the energy tariff reform analysis, the expert will design mitigation measures:

•        Conduct a distributional impact assessment of energy tariff reform, fossil fuel subsidy removal, renewable energy expansion, industrial decarbonization policies;

•        Map poverty-energy, social and ecological vulnerability as well as specific vulnerabilities created by the transition and gender-specific vulnerabilities and identify intersectional vulnerabilities;

•        review existing social protection programs;

•        collaborate with the NASP to design a permanent “Energy Support Benefit” targetting the missing middle – households not poor enough for basic social aid but vulnerable to energy poverty. This includes identifying this social group (energy poverty index), the potential interoperability of existing social schemes systems, defining eligibility criteria (proxy means testing versus categorical targeting) and simulation of fiscal costs and benefits;

•        propose a “Social Energy Efficiency Program” – a subsidy scheme for low-income households to insulate homes or buy efficient appliances or modernize house heating system, thereby permanently reducing their energy bills;

•        Identify financing options and design financing strategy for adaptive social protection mechanisms.

2. A “Green skills and job” Roadmap for the informal sector – addressing the specific exclusion of women and informal workers:

•        conduct labor market analysis on renewable energy value chains, grid modernization, climate-resilient agriculture

•        conduct skills gap analysis and vocational education reform needs

•        identify specific “green” occupations and “greening” occupations that are accessible to informal workers (solar panel installation assistants, drip irrigation maintenance, waste sorting, etc.); as well as the need for upskilling and reskilling in these sectors

•        coordinate with specific initiatives and policies aiming at identifying the informal population to cross data and fine-tune the targeting of training programs for the informal sector and women population;

•        design a pilot for “Recognition of prior learning” to allow informal workers to certify their skills and access formal green jobs; and pilot training programs with local institutions in targeted pilot region (see point 3)

•        identify and mitigate the risks of employment of these specific groups in precarious and green jobs with bad working conditions;

•        strengthen public-private partnerships to ensure adequacy between skills development and green and greening employment opportunities;

•        design guidelines to embed social conditionality in renewable PPP contracts;

•        develop a specific policy package for women in the “care economy” and home-based sectors, ensuring they are not left behind by the focus on heavy industry decarbonization. This includes exploring state-subsidized childcare to enable women`s participation in green training programs or development of childcare services associated with the training institutions

3. Territorial just transition plans – recognizing that the transition is spatially uneven.

•        Map regional socio-economic disparities to target specific regions and prevent exacerbating territorial inequality;

•        Design territorial impact assessment tools to analyze social impacts specific to territories, potential fiscal impact and financing capacities etc.

•        Identify data fragmentation between national and regional levels and fiscal decentralization constraints;

•        select 2 pilot regions based on vulnerability (for example, Navoi for industrial risk, Karakalpakstan for environmental risk) as well as opportunity to distribute the economic and social co-benefits of the transition;

•        develop a standard methodology for drafting “Territorial Just Transition Plans”, inspired by the EU model but adapted to Uzbekistan`s centralized governance. The methodology should guide local Hokimiyats on how to plan for economic diversification, attract green investment, monitor social impacts and maximize social co-benefits. It should also cover participatory involvement mechanisms and multi-level monitoring and evaluation framework.

4. Propose a technical capacity enhancement plan for robust quantitative data collection and analysis to support evidence-based policy formulation

·       assessment of data collection capacities especially on climate-relevant data, impact of climate change and green transition on people assessment of availability and quality of existing data sets for climate and just transition analysis

·       assessment of data analysis capacities, modelling and simulation tools

·       provide a gap analysis and recommendations for strengthening capacities

The recommendations should include in particular a methodology for social impact budget tagging system identifying climate-related expenditures, socially redistributive climate expenditures and integrating tagging into public financial management system.

Component 3: Architecting the "Service Offer" (the core deliverable)

Objective: To design the future technical assistance facility. This is the most critical output, as it ensures sustainability.

Tasks:

1. Supervision of the Just Transition stakeholder and policy mapping and Just Transition assessment studies

Supervise the production of two studies aiming at informing the service offer for a future technical assistance facility on just transition. The first study consists in developing a comprehensive mapping of institutional stakeholders and relevant policies and programs that influence and integrate the social justice dimension of Uzbekistan’s green transition. The second study is expected to develop a pre-diagnosis of social challenges and opportunities in the green transition, through desk review and participatory dialogue with mapped stakeholders, as well as on mandatory trips to the regions to study the situation on the ground.

The role of the key expert on Just Transition will be to:

·       Review and provide technical inputs to the deliverables to ensure their quality and relevancy

·       Provide guidance to guarantee the deliverables’ fully operational character

·       Coordinate both studies and ensure their consistency

2. Needs assessment and demand analysis

•        conduct deep-dive interviews with government agencies to understand their pain points (Do they need software? Legal drafting? Training?);

•        categorize these needs into “Service lines”.

3. Structuring the facility

•        design the decision-making process for the facility (Who approves a request? How to ensure quality control?);

•        propose a budget structure (How much for long-term experts vs. short-term missions?);

•        draft the “User guide” for the facility—how a ministry applies for support, the selection criteria (relevance to GGSF, sustainability), and reporting requirements.

4. Drafting the “Action Document” (or Description of Action)

•        draft the formal “Action Document” (or Description of Action) required for EU or other donors` funding. This document must be rigorous, including a detailed Logical Framework Matrix with SMART indicators, a risk analysis, and a detailed budget breakdown;

•        draft standard Terms of Reference for the key profiles that will be mobilized under the facility.

III.                Deliverables and reporting schedule

Deliverables must be submitted in English (and executive summaries in Russian/Uzbek if required).

Important Note on Action Documents: the “Action Document” (Deliverable 5) is the critical path deliverable. It must strictly adhere to EU Global Gateway and NDICI-Global Europe programming templates. This requires a mastery of Logframe approach, “Rio Markers” for climate finance tracking, and “Gender Markers” (GAP III). The expert must ensure the document justifies the intervention`s contribution to the SDGs and the Paris Agreement.