1. Background

Within the framework of the AFD PPL, the second disbursement (EUR 60 million) is conditional upon the achievement of selected Disbursement Indicators, notably under “Reform Areas 1.2: Climate Budget Tagging”, “1.3: Managing fiscal risks related to disasters, including climate change” and “1.4: Increasing the climate resilience of public investments”.

Preliminary analyses conducted by Expertise France indicate that:
-    the relevant reforms are “partially” implemented;
-    key elements are in place, but documented evidence and traceability remain incomplete;
-    beyond a binary compliance check, EF is willing to contribute to an informed policy dialogue with Albanian authorities

In this context, Expertise France intends to mobilise a short-term senior expert to:
-    verify the level of achievement of the relevant indicators;
-    assess the robustness of the systems in place;
identify realistic and targeted improvement actions and relatives technical assistance supports, if needed (additional technical assistance needs should be discussed with other development partners involved in the targeted reform areas as AFD has no more budget in 2026 to support specific short-term actions).

2. Objectives of the assignment

Overall objective: To provide a concise, evidence-based and policy-oriented assessment of the achievement of AFD Disbursement Indicators under Reform Areas 1.2, 1.3 and 1.4, in support of the second disbursement of the PPL.

Specific objectives: The expert shall:
-    Verify whether the AFD Disbursement Indicators are “achieved”, “partially achieved” or “not achieved”;
-    Assess the quality, coherence and effective use of the mechanisms put in place, beyond formal compliance;
-    Formulate pragmatic and actionable recommendations and short and medium term actions to address identified gaps, where relevant.

3. Scope of work and expected deliverables

Task 1 – Reform Area 1.2: Climate Budget Tagging
The expert will:
-    Comment the Climate Budget Tagging methodology already approved by the MoF (as compared to international best standards: gaps, weaknesses, areas for improvements);
-    Assess its effective application within at least two lines ministries (at minimum: MoE and MIE as proposed by the MTE in its last progress report) and the ministries’ contribution to the reduction of emissions;
-    Identify and document the budget lines effectively “tagged” as climate-related in the medium-term budget framework 2026-2028;
-    Assess and provide concrete, short- and medium-term recommendations as regards:
o    the clarity of climate-related objectives;
o    the relevance of performance indicators;
o    the process through which tagged activities were identified and prioritized;
o    institutional roles, responsibilities and available capacities at the ministry level
-    Identify the actors that could efficiency provide support to the Ministry. 

Deliverable 1: Analytical note including: 
-    a clear and justified assessment of the indicators’ achievement status;
-    concise, prioritised and operational recommendations, distinguishing:
o    short-term actions relevant for disbursement;
o    medium-term improvements feeding into policy dialogue.

Task 2 – Reform Area 1.3: Managing fiscal risks related to disasters, including climate change
The expert will:
-    Comment the Fiscal Risk Statements (FRS) 2023 and 2024 (cf. Annex), with a focus on natural disaster and climate-related risks (identify climate risks, relevance, related budget, etc.);
-    Justify the explicit inclusion of at least one climate-related risk in each FRS (mitigation measures);
-    Analyse how fiscal risks related to climate and disasters are reflected in budgetary instruments (e.g. emergency funds, reserves, etc.) and the coordination mechanisms among relevant ministries to consider these risks;
-    Assess the extent to which the FRS inform, or is linked to, the Medium-Term Budget Framework (MTBF);
-    Identify key gaps against best practices, and realistic options to strengthen the budget-risk nexus.

Deliverable 2: Analytical note including: 
-    a clear and justified assessment of the indicator’s achievement status;
-    concise, prioritised and operational recommendations, distinguishing:
o    short-term actions relevant for disbursement;
o    medium-term improvements feeding into policy dialogue.

Task 3 – Reform Area 1.4: Increasing the climate resilience of public investments
The expert will:
-    Comment the Public Investment Management (PIM) procedures in the perspective of climate resilience of public investments;
-    Assess whether environment assessment and climate impact criteria are effectively integrated into project identification, selection and appraisal processes;
-    Review a limited sample of project appraisal documents (e.g. F-2 / F-3 forms);
-    Estimate the share of climate informed new public investments included in the MTBF as a percentage of total public investments submitted;
-    Assess the systematic application of climate criteria in public investment proposals;
-    Identify practical measures to strengthen evidence, traceability and quality control.

Deliverable 3: Analytical note including: 
-    a clear and justified assessment of the indicator’s achievement status;
-    concise, prioritised and operational recommendations, distinguishing:
o    short-term actions relevant for disbursement;
o    medium-term improvements feeding into policy dialogue.