The main objective of the assignment is to conduct a rigorous, evidence-based mid-term assessment of the implementation of the GGSF, approved by the Presidential Decree PQ-436, evaluating the progress toward the 2030 strategic goals, and the effectiveness of measures and the institutional mechanisms established to achieve them.

Specific objectives include to:

-          independently verify the progress of the eight strategic indicators listed in Annex 1 of PQ-436, assessing the gap between the current trajectory and the 2030 targets;

-          analyze the efficacy of the governance structure, specifically the interplay between the Interdepartmental Coordination Council, the MEF, the National Committee on Ecology and Climate Change, and the Climate Council, identifying friction points and capacity gaps;

-          evaluate the operational status and market uptake of key green economy enablers: the National ETF (MRV system), the Green Taxonomy, and the Green Energy Certificate system, national Article 6 Framework, and other key enablers indicated in the GGSF;  

-          assess the compliance of the 25 state-owned enterprises (SOEs) listed in Annex 4 with their mandatory energy-saving targets and the adoption of ESG reporting standards;

-          develop a set of actionable recommendations for updating the key enablers and Action Plan of the GGSF, ensuring alignment with the “Uzbekistan-2030” Strategy and maximizing the use of green finance and carbon market mechanisms.

Therefore, under the supervision of the Team Leader of the GETAP the Consultant will be responsible for delivering a comprehensive evaluation that covers policy, institutional, financial, and technical dimensions of the GGSF. The scope is divided into five distinct but interrelated components:

Component 1. Assessment of strategic targets

The Consultant shall conduct a detailed review of the progress made against the strategic targets defined in PQ-436. This is not a simple desk review of government reports; it requires independent data verification and trend analysis.

Table 1. Strategic Indicators for Assessment

Component 2. Institutional and governance review

The Consultant must navigate the complex and shifting institutional landscape to evaluate whether the current governance structure is fit for purpose.

Key assessment areas:

-          Interdepartmental Coordination Council performance:

o   evaluate the frequency, attendance, and decision-making quality of the Interdepartmental Coordination Council established by PQ-4477 and PQ-436;

o   assess whether the Council has effectively coordinated cross-ministerial actions or if fragmentations remain between energy, water, agriculture, transport, construction, mining and geology, investment ministries;

o   analyze the impact of the Climate Council`s establishment: does the Climate Council duplicate the Interdepartmental Coordination Council, or does it provide a necessary higher level of political steer? The Consultant must propose a clear delineation of responsibilities;

-          Ministry of Economy and Finance capacity:

o   assess the capacity of the MEF and its Center for Green Economy Projects. Following the merger of economy and finance, has the green agenda been mainstreamed into public finance management system including budget planning, public investment and procurement, PPPs, or has it been diluted;

o   evaluate the performance of the Technical Secretariat and the Donor Coordination Group: has the Donor Coordination Group succeeded in aligning IFI support to avoid overlap and target funding gaps;

-          National Committee on Ecology and Climate Change:

o   review the mandate of the newly formed National Committee: how effective is it in enforcing environmental regulations compared to the previous Ministry?

o   assess the operational readiness of the State Environmental Control Inspectorate (“Eco-Police”): do they have the necessary training, equipment, and legal authority to enforce compliance with GGSF targets;

Component 3. Evaluation of enabling mechanisms and regulatory instruments

PQ-436 and subsequent decrees introduced sophisticated market mechanisms to drive the green transition. The Consultant must evaluate their implementation status and market impact.

-          National ETF (national MRV system), launched in June 2024 via Presidential Resolution, with the MEF as the national authority:

o   evaluate the technical architecture of the current MRV system: is the Green economy online platform fully operational? Is relevant data sharing among sectoral ministries effective, are they continuously providing data?

o   assess the system`s alignment with Article 13 of the Paris Agreement: does it support the generation of reliable National Inventory Reports and Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs);

-          National Green Taxonomy, approved by Cabinet of Ministers Resolution No. 561 in October 2023:

o   assess the adoption of the Taxonomy by the financial sector: are state-owned banks classifying loans based on these criteria? has the Central Bank issued prudential regulations incentivizing green assets?

o   determine if the Taxonomy has facilitated the issuance of green bonds or attracted international climate finance. Assess updating status of the existing Taxonomy, and compare the existing Taxonomy and a draft updated Taxonomy with international standards (EU Taxonomy, CBI) to identify interoperability issues.

-          Green energy certificates system, introduced in 2023; first solar plant registered in 2024; over 344,000 certificates issued:

o   evaluate the liquidity of the certificate market: who are the buyers, trading ecosystem`s completeness and efficiency;

o   identify regulatory or technical barriers preventing more renewable energy generators (solar, wind, hydro) from registering. Assess the revenue impact for generators: are certificates providing a meaningful financial incentive;

-          Carbon markets and Article 6:

o   review the regulatory framework for carbon trading: is it clear enough for private project developers? assess the potential pipeline of projects for Article 6.2 and 6.4 transfers.

Component 4. Industrial deep dive

Annex 4 of PQ-436 explicitly lists 25 major SOEs with binding energy-saving targets for 2022-2026. This component requires a focused assessment of a representative sample:

-          the Consultant shall select at least 5 major enterprises covering different sectors, and:

o   assess and verify reported energy consumption data against production output to calculate energy intensity;

o   assess specific energy efficiency measures implemented since 2023, and planned for 2026 onwards;

o   PQ-436 and subsequent decrees mandate the introduction of ESG principles in large SOEs. The Consultant must assess the existing Sustainability / ESG reporting Framework, and if these enterprises published ESG reports, these reports audited by third parties, has the implementation of ESG standards improved their access to international capital markets, etc.

Component 5. Recommendations and roadmap

Based on the findings from Components 1 - 4, the Consultant must develop a forward-looking strategic roadmap:

-          recommend adjustments to the 2030 targets if current data suggests they are either too easy or unattainable. Align PQ-436 targets with the “Uzbekistan-2030” Strategy, and other strategic acts;

-          propose a revised governance model that clarifies the roles of the Climate Council, the Interdepartmental Coordination Council, the National Committee on Ecology, and the MEF. Draft ToRs for the both Councils` working bodies if gaps are identified;

-          draft a revised Action Plan for 2026-2030, focusing on high-impact, low-cost interventions;

-          design a training program for government officials on MRV, Green Taxonomy application, and climate finance structuring.

1.       METHODOLOGY

The Consultant is expected to employ a robust, mixed-methods evaluation approach, adhering to the following OECD DAC Evaluation Criteria:

-          Relevance – assess whether GGSF`s objectives remain pertinent given the evolving global climate agenda and domestic priorities;

-          Coherence – evaluate internal coherence (alignment with sectoral strategies) and external coherence (alignment with international acts);

-          Effectiveness – measure the extent to which the quantitative targets have been achieved. Use contribution analysis to infer causality. For example, did the policy interventions (subsidies) cause the observed changes (water saving), or were they driven by external factors (drought)?

-          Efficiency – analyze the cost-effectiveness of the interventions. For example, has the funding mobilized by the Donor Coordination Group been deployed efficiently?

-          Sustainability – assess whether the results are durable. For instance, are the institutional changes (green budget tagging) embedded in the legal framework?

The following data collection instruments can be applied:

1.       Desk review:

a.       legal acts (laws, Presidential Decrees and Resolutions, Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers);

b.       internal government monitoring reports (MEF, Ministry of Ecology);

c.       reports from international partners;

d.       statistical data from the Statistics Agency under the President.

2.       Key informant interviews:

a.       Government – MEF, National Committee of Ecology, Ministry of Energy, Ministry of Water Resources, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Contruction, MIIT, etc.;

b.       International partners – World Bank, UNDP, ADB, EBRD, GGGI, EU Delegation;

c.       Private sector – Chambers of Commerce, Solar/Wind developers (Masdar, ACWA), Industrial associations;

3.       Focus group discussions (tentative topics):

a.       Topic 1 “Barriers to green finance” (with commercial banks);

b.       Topic 2 “Industrial energy efficiency challenges” (with SOE Energy Managers);

c.       Topic 3 “Water-saving technologies” (with Farmers` Councils and Water Consumers Associations);

d.       other topics.

4.       On-site verification – the Consultant shall conduct site visits to a sample of industrial facilities (PQ-436 Annex 4) and "Yashil Makon" planting sites to ground-truth the reported data.

2.       DELIVERABLES, TENTATIVE WORKPLAN AND TIMEFRAME

The selected Consultant will implement the assignment through regular field missions combined with a remote work. If necessary, identify the needs in complementary short-term expertise. The total duration of the assignment is estimated at 5 months. The Consultant will report to the Team Leader of the GETAP, Expertise France.

All deliverables shall be submitted in English and Uzbek. The Executive Summary of the Final Report must be of high graphical quality suitable for presentation to the Government.

Table 2. Schedule of deliverables