1.       CONTEXT OF THE ASSIGNMENT

The Republic of Uzbekistan is currently navigating a socio-economic transformation, characterized by a shift from a state-led, resource-intensive economic model to a market-oriented, inclusive, and sustainable growth trajectory. Since 2017, the government has implemented sweeping liberalization reforms that have stimulated growth, with GDP expanding by approximately 6.0% in 2019, 7.4% in 2021, and maintaining robust growth rates of 5.7% to 6.5% in subsequent years. This economic resurgence, however, has exposed the critical vulnerabilities inherent in the nation`s historical development patterns: high energy intensity, heavy reliance on fossil fuels (particularly natural gas), and acute sensitivity to climate change impacts such as water scarcity and land degradation.

The environmental cost of this growth has been substantial. Uzbekistan`s economy remains one of the most carbon-intensive in the Europe and Central Asia region, with a significant portion of its industrial base operating on aging infrastructure that predates modern energy efficiency standards. The energy sector alone accounts for approximately 70% of the country`s GHG emissions, driven by a reliance on natural gas for electricity generation and heating, as well as significant methane leakage in the extraction and distribution networks. Furthermore, the agricultural sector, which employs a quarter of the workforce, faces existential threats from changing hydrological patterns and the legacy of the Aral Sea crisis, necessitating a radical rethinking of water resource management.

Recognizing these interconnected challenges, the Government of Uzbekistan (GoU) has elevated the green economy transition to a top strategic priority. This commitment was formalized initially in the Strategy for the Transition to a Green Economy for the Period 2019-2030 (Presidential Resolution PP-4477 (2019)). However, aiming to accelerate implementation and align national targets with enhanced obligations under the Paris Agreement, specifically the updated NDC to reduce specific GHG emissions per unit of GDP by 35% by 2030, the President signed Resolution No. PQ-436 "On measures to increase the effectiveness of reforms aimed at the transition of the Republic of Uzbekistan to a green economy until 2030" on December 2, 2022.

Decree PQ-436 serves as the primary operational vehicle for Uzbekistan`s green transition. It introduces a comprehensive Green Growth Strategic Framework (Annex 1) with specific quantitative targets for 2030, a Concept for Industrial Energy Efficiency (Annex 2), an Action Plan (Annex 3), and binding Energy Saving Targets for 25 Major Enterprises (Annex 4). The effective implementation of this Decree is not merely an environmental objective, but it is also a prerequisite for sustaining economic competitiveness in a decarbonizing global market, attracting green investment, and ensuring energy security for a growing population.

Since the adoption of PQ-436 in late 2022, the institutional architecture governing Uzbekistan`s green transition has undergone significant restructuring. These changes have altered the reporting lines, mandates, and operational dynamics envisaged in the original Decree, creating a complex governance environment that necessitates a fresh assessment of implementation efficacy.

-          At the time of PQ-436`s adoption, the Ministry of Economic Development and Poverty Reduction was designated as the authorized body for coordinating the green economy transition and serving as the secretariat for the Interdepartmental Coordination Council for Green Transition of the Country. In early 2023, as part of a broader administrative reform to optimize governance, that Ministry was merged with the Ministry of Finance to form the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF). This merger theoretically strengthens the link between green strategy and green finance, but it also consolidates a vast array of responsibilities under a single entity, raising questions about the dedicated capacity available for green economy coordination versus macroeconomic stabilization functions;

-          The environmental regulatory body has also evolved. Formerly the State Committee for Ecology and Environmental Protection, it was transformed into the Ministry of Ecology, Environmental Protection, and Climate Change in 2023. More recently, in November 2025, it was further reorganized into the National Committee on Ecology and Climate Change, reporting directly to the President. This elevation in status underscores the political importance of the climate agenda but necessitates a re-evaluation of how this new Committee interacts with the MEF-led Interdepartmental Council established under PQ-436; 

-          To provide high-level strategic direction, the Climate Council under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan was established in 2024. This body serves as the supreme advisory organ on climate policy, potentially superseding some functions of the Interdepartmental Coordination Council for Green Transition of the Country under the Cabinet of Ministers. The relationship between these two bodies (one focused on broad green economy implementation (Interdepartmental Council) and the other on high-level climate strategy (Climate Council), needs clarifying to avoid duplication and ensure coherent policy signaling;

-          The creation of a specialized State Environmental Control Inspectorate (“Eco-Police”) under the new National Committee introduces a robust enforcement arm previously lacking. This development fundamentally changes the compliance landscape for industrial enterprises targeted in Annex 4 of PQ-436, shifting from voluntary targets to potentially strictly enforced mandates.

Given this dynamic context, the MEF requires a comprehensive, independent assessment of the Uzbekistan Green Growth Strategic Framework`s (GGSF) implementation, approved with PQ-436.

2.       TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE CONTEXT

To support the efforts of Uzbekistan on green transition, a wider green economy public policy loan program was designed and financed by the AFD. This five-year program (2022-26) consists in: (i) an in-depth policy dialogue on the formulation, implementation and evaluation of the Green Growth Strategic Framework (GGSF), (ii) a series of three concessional budget support loans disbursed upon completion of pre-agreed reform targets and (iii) a technical cooperation project funded by dedicated grants.

Thus, the Technical Assistance entrusted to Expertise France is implemented in the framework of the larger Green Economy Technical Assistance Program (GETAP) financed by the European Union that cover the remaining years of implementation of the Green Economy Public Policy Loan Program (2023-26) and will support national authorities in delivering on key milestones of the GGSF. In addition, it is a logical extension of a previous TA carried out by Expertise France and funded by AFD`s own resources. Expertise France’s part of the GETAP comprises the following components:

-          Institutional support to the MEF on GGSF operationalization and coordination, including support to the Centre for Green Economy Projects;

-          Implementation of the MRV system;

-          Green Public Investment;

-          Green Budget;

-          Fossil fuel subsidies phasing out;

-          Environmental taxation;

-          Sustainable Public Procurement;

-          Sustainable governance of SOE.

This technical assessment if a part of the abovementioned “Institutional Support to the MEF” component of the GETAP. The rationale for this assignment is threefold:

-          With the launch of the “Uzbekistan-2030” Strategy, which sets overarching national development goals, there is a need to verify if the specific targets in PQ-436 remain aligned with the broader national ambition or if they require recalibration;

-          PQ-436 and subsequent resolutions introduced novel market mechanisms, including the National Green Taxonomy, the National Enhanced Transparency Framework (including national MRV system), and the Green Energy Certificate System, National Article 6 Frameworrk. These are complex regulatory instruments. An early-stage assessment is critical to determine if they are functioning as intended, if the private sector is engaging with them, and what technical bottlenecks are hindering their widespread adoption;  

-          Uzbekistan faces a significant financing gap for its climate goals. The assessment will provide credible, verified data on progress, which is essential for unlocking further concessional finance from partners, as well as attracting private capital via green bonds and carbon markets.  

The Terms of Reference outlines the requirements for a consulting firm (Consultant) to conduct this multi-dimensional assessment. The result will be a strategic roadmap for the next phase of Uzbekistan`s green transition (2025-2030).