1.       OBJECTIVE, SCOPE, ACTIVITIES AND DELIVERABLES

These ToR relate to the Component 2 – Just Transition Assessment

Objective:

Develop a pre-diagnosis of social challenges and opportunities in the green transition, through desk review and participatory dialogue with mapped stakeholders, as well as on mandatory trips to the regions to study the situation on the ground. The output will guide future programmatic support by AFD and partners.

Tasks:

1. Value Chain Analysis:
   • Identify carbon-intensive and/ or climate-vulnerable value chains
   • Estimate number of actives enterprises, employment (including indirect), regional concentration, and economic weight
   • Identify emerging green and low-emission sectors with inclusive growth potential, in particular SMEs and their role in green job creation
   • Identify and analyze key low-carbon but low-productivity informal sectors where women are highly concentrated (subsistence agriculture, home-based textile/craft production, bazaar trade, etc.), focusing on identifying concrete opportunities for “greening” these sectors to improve productivity, income security, and working conditions.

2. Territorial Impact Assessment (at least 3 regions):
   • Identify regions and settlements most affected by the green transition
   • Assess the adaptive capacity of local communities and institutions in these regions

3. Social Group Vulnerability Analysis:
   • Identify groups most at risk (low-income/ poor households, women, youth, elderly, people with disabilities, informal workers, or any group of population identified as disadvantaged or vulnerable in the first phase of the study)
   • Analyze potential impacts on incomes, employment, and service access
   • Assess the specific vulnerabilities stemming from the systematic exclusion of women informal workers from contributory social protection schemes, with a focus on the lack of access to maternity benefits, pensions, and paid sick leave, and how this absence of a safety net amplifies the social risks of the green transition

4. Review of Social Sector Policies:
   • Assess how existing policies incorporate green transition considerations in:
     • Employment and labor market policies
     • Social protection
     • Vocational training and skills development
     • Support to MSMEs and local economic development programs

5. Institutional and Planning Capacity:
   • Review of existing mechanisms for inter-ministerial coordination on just transition
   • Identify existing gaps and strengths (resources) in planning and implementation
6. Recommendations:
   • Formulate a set of operational recommendations to guide the design of a socially inclusive green transition in Uzbekistan aligned with Uzbekistan’s LTS and low-carbon development strategy and AFD’s programming orientations. These recommendations should address analytical, policy, institutional, and financing needs and help shape AFD’s future technical and financial support.

6.1. Analytical and Knowledge Gaps

6. • Identify priority areas and regions (at least 3) where further data collection or analytical work is required to inform just transition policymaking. These may include:
     • Distributional impact assessments of green reforms (e.g., energy pricing, land use change);
     • Support to entrepreneurship ecosystem (access to finance, access to technical support, regulatory framework, favorable business environment)
     • Labor market vulnerability diagnostics (by sector, region, and demographic group);
     • Climate vulnerability assessments at household and community levels;
     • Gender-differentiated impacts of the green transition;
     • Public awareness and behavioral readiness studies.
   • Propose opportunities for collaboration with national research institutions, universities, or think tanks to strengthen the evidence base and build local ownership.

6.2. Policy and Programmatic Actions

6. • Recommend a set of orientations for policy measures (with practical justification for at least 3 regions) that could:
     • Anticipate and mitigate social risks related to climate and environmental reforms; Identify how reforms could have a positive impact in reducing inequalities and exclusion (including gender inequalities);
     • Strengthen labor market transitions (reskilling, job placement, active labor market policies), including recommendations that explicitly link the greening of traditional, female-dominated informal sectors with pathways to formalization and the principles of decent work;
     • Improve targeting and flexibility of social safety nets in response to climate and energy shocks, including an assessment of the feasibility of introducing non-contributory social protection floors, such as a universal maternity cash benefit for women outside the formal system;
     • Promote inclusive green entrepreneurship, especially for youth, women, disadvantaged population including rural populations and low-income population;
     • Foster territorial development approaches in regions affected by de-carbonization, water stress, or climate risks.
     • Promote transition of state-owned companies to a low-carbon productive and socially oriented models
   • Identify opportunities to leverage and green existing programs (with examples of extensive analysis conducted in at least 3 regions) (e.g., employment support schemes, regional development funds, vocational training reforms).
   • Propose policy measures that recognize and invest in the care economy as a foundational enabler for women`s full participation in the green economy and a key component of a just transition.
   • Develop recommendations for modernizing and institutionally strengthening the social protection system for a just transition, including specific proposals for:
     • developing flexible targeted assistance;
     • institutionalizing emergency social protection.

6.3. Institutional Strengthening and Governance

6. • Recommend steps to strengthen inter-ministerial coordination mechanisms (e.g., Economy, Environment, Labor, Social Protection, Energy, Agriculture) and with local authorities and civil society;
   • Propose mechanisms to establish or strengthen formal tripartite social dialogue on decarbonization policies and just transition planning, ensuring the meaningful representation and active participation of women from the informal economy, potentially through engagement with women`s committees, unions, or other associations;
   • Identify institutional entry points for integrating concertation and definition of just transition principles in development planning processes (e.g., national and sectoral strategies);
   • Suggest capacity-building activities to strengthen:
     • Public sector expertise on social-climate linkages;
     • Development of skills in cross-sectoral policy design and budgeting;
     • Participatory planning methods and stakeholder engagement.

Deliverables:

o   Just transition assessment report, including:

-          with analysis of vulnerable regions (extended analysis, at least 3), groups and economic sectors, identification of risks, a set of targeted recommendations and consequences;

-          prioritized list of recommendations with short, medium, and long-term actions;

-          roadmap for implementation, including timelines, responsible entities, and required resources.

o   Policy dialogue summary (workshops, stakeholder consultations)

-          Final document of the brief policy dialogue — including the results of consultations and workshops with stakeholders, priority areas for inclusion in future strategic documents;

o   Dissemination workshop

-          to present recommendations and results (formalization of commitments and further steps)

o   Final roadmap and recommendation brief

-          with specific proposals for analytics, policy and institutional development in the short and medium term, including:

o   measures to reduce social vulnerability to climate reforms;

o   proposals for a flexible system of social support;

o   institutional measures for coordination and training.

Note: Information on the progress of implementation is provided on a monthly basis; the format and frequency of reporting may be specified by agreement of the parties.