These ToR relate to the Component 1 – Stakeholder and Policy Mapping

Objective:

Develop a comprehensive mapping of institutional stakeholders and relevant policies/programs that influence the social justice dimension of Uzbekistan’s green transition.

Tasks:

1.                  Contextual Analysis:

·       Highlight the key social risks (job displacement, energy affordability, regional disparities, etc.) and opportunities (green job creation, improved social equity, etc.) related to the green transition in Uzbekistan

·       Provide a diagnostic of poverty, inequality, and vulnerability, including:

·       Demographic structure (population growth, age, life expectancy, education)

·       Urban-rural disparities

·       Employment structure and informality

·       Sectoral contributions to GDP and economic structure (with focus on enterprises)

·       Identification of vulnerable and more disadvantaged groups and regions, Including gender disparities:

·       Analysis of the dual landscape of women`s work, contrasting the systemic disadvantages in the formal labor market (wage gaps, sectoral segregation, etc.) with the scale and drivers of the feminization of the informal economy.

2.                  Stakeholder Mapping:

·       Identify and map relevant actors, including:

·       Government ministries (ideally at the department level), Centers, and agencies in charge of: social support (social protection, training, access to job…), fight against poverty, job creation, MSME, business development support, entrepreneurship, trade

·       State-owned enterprises and programs

·       Social partners, including workers` organizations (Federation of Trade Unions of Uzbekistan and its sectoral branches), employers` organizations and major business associations

·       Civil society organizations (including human right and feminist organization, and advocacy groups for informal workers )

·       Local community structures (mahallas, regional administrations, local development committees, and other relevant structures)

·       Research institutes and think tanks

For each actor, provide:

o   Legal mandate and institutional role

o   Key programs and policies (including impacts on poverty and inequality)

o   Possible or existing role in the green transition

o   Engagement capacity and existing partnerships

·       Identify and map International Finance Institutions and Donors currently involved in supporting these areas, with a view to limit duplication and enhance opportunities for coordination. For each actor, provide:

o   Legal mandate and scope of work

o   Overview of current engagement and strategic priorities

o   Key programs and policies (including impacts on poverty and inequality)

3.                  Policy and Program Review:

·       Identify existing coordination and participatory tools to design and plan public policies (using the example of three regions of the Republic)

·       Assess the structure of government expenditures and subsidies affecting climate and social objectives, including energy subsidies and social support programs for low-income groups

·       Map national and regional policies aimed at reducing poverty and inequalities  (including gender inequalities)

·       Analyze how existing national social targeting systems, specifically the “Social Registries / Notebooks (Youth, Women, etc)”, and mahalla-level structures, can be leveraged or adapted to deliver support related to the green transition

·       Identify measures already in place or implemented as part of the Green Growth Strategic

Framework and/or the new LTS and national policies to:

·       Overview of fiscal programs within the green growth strategy

·       Mitigate social and economic risks of the transition

·       Reduce vulnerabilities to climate change

·       Promote inclusive development (including industrial policy and trade)

·       Analysis of current social support measures (to mitigate the consequences of energy reforms) with an emphasis on their adaptation in the context of rising tariffs and loss of income.

4.   Inequality and Risk Assessment:

·       Identify potential channels through which the green transition may exacerbate inequalities (e.g., by gender, geography, social vulnerability, employment status)

·       Highlight structural risks (e.g., job displacement, affordability and access to services)

·       Use the multidimensional poverty analysis model

·       Assess the disproportionate impact of energy tariff reforms on energy poverty for female-headed households and women-led home-based enterprises, whose livelihoods are directly tied to energy costs.

·       Analyze the risk of a widening “green skills mismatch”, evaluating how current educational tracking and limited access to technical training for women, particularly those in the informal economy, may exclude them from new jobs in emerging green sectors.

Deliverables:

·       Inception report with details of the approach, methodology (data collection and analysis) and implementation plan (with practical applicability in at least 3 regions);

·       Stakeholder and policy mapping report, including:

o   the results of the context analysis, stakeholder maps and review of existing programs, analysis of the distribution of institutional roles, identification of gaps and duplications, clear recommendations for improving coordination and inclusion of social aspects in green reforms, reflecting the risks for vulnerable groups, as well as measures to adapt the social protection system;

o   stakeholders` matrix with roles, responsibilities, and capacities;

o   policy gap analysis identifying areas where existing policies fail to address social risks.

·       Presentation to AFD and key counterparts

o   presentation of conclusions, revision in accordance with the comments received (feedback) and discussion of ways of further cooperation