The main objective of the assignment is to assist the Government of Uzbekistan in developing a comprehensive fossil fuel subsidy reform plan through conducting a thorough assessment of fossil fuel subsidies and their impacts, developing evidence-based reform scenarios and strategies, creating a detailed action plan for implementing reforms, identifying and engaging stakeholders and building capacity for implementing reforms.

Therefore, under the supervision of the Team Leader of the GETAP and in coordination with the selected expert or a consulting firm will carry out the following activities:

Activity 1. Comprehensive fossil fuel subsidy reforms impact assessment and reform strategy development.

The Consultant shall conduct a thorough impact assessment of both the fossil fuel subsidies themselves and the fossil fuel subsidy phasing out reforms in Uzbekistan, and develop evidence-based reform scenarios and strategies. The scope of the activity includes:

·       Conduct a comprehensive impact assessment of phasing out fossil fuel subsidies.

·       Develop reform scenarios based on the impact assessment results.

·       Provide policy recommendations for implementing fossil fuel subsidy reforms.

Deliverable: A comprehensive report titled “Fossil Fuel Subsidy Impact Assessment and Reform Strategy for Uzbekistan”, prepared in English with a preliminary outline of its content:

1.       Executive summary

·       Key findings, methodologies, and recommendations

·       Overview of the subsidy landscape and reform scenarios

2.       Introduction

·       Context of fossil fuel subsidies in Uzbekistan

·       Objectives of the study

·       Scope and methodology overview

3.       Impact assessment methodology

·       Analytical framework

·       Data sources and limitations

·       Modelling techniques (CGE models, input-output analysis, etc.)

4.       Impact assessment results

·       Economic impacts (effects on GDP and economic growth, sectoral impacts (energy, industry, agriculture, etc.), impacts on public finances and fiscal sustainability, effects on energy efficiency and consumption patterns, etc.)

·       Social impacts (household welfare effects across income groups, employment effects in fossil fuel and related industries, energy poverty and access considerations, distributional impacts, and equity concerns)

·       Environmental impacts (Greenhouse gas emissions projections, local air quality implications, potential for renewable energy adoption)

5.       Review of past and current reform initiatives

·       Analysis of previous subsidy reform attempts in Uzbekistan

·       Lessons learned from international experiences (e.g., Indonesia, OECD countries)

·       Analysis of cumulative impacts from other initiatives / policies ongoing or planned in Uzbekistan (i.e. Green Tax Policies, energy tariffs, energy efficiency, etc.)

6.       Reform scenarios

·       Baseline scenario

·       Gradual phase-out scenarios (e.g., 5-year, 10-year plans)

·       Sector-specific reform options

·       Shock scenario (rapid subsidy removal)

7.       Policy instruments and social assistance programs

·       Targeted social protection measures

·       Economic diversification strategies

·       Energy sector reform recommendations

·       Public communication and stakeholder engagement plans

8.       Implementation Roadmap

·       Sequencing of reforms

·       Institutional arrangements and capacity building needs

·       Monitoring and evaluation framework

9.       Conclusions and Key Recommendations

·       Summary of main findings

·       Priority actions for policymakers

·       Areas for further research and analysis

Activity 2. Develop Detailed Action Plan for FFS Reform.

The Consultant shall create a detailed, actionable plan for implementing the fossil fuel subsidy reform based on the assessment and strategy developed in Activity 1. This activity includes the following components:

·       Outlining specific steps for phasing out subsidies based on the most viable reform scenario, including a timeline and sequencing of activities for implementing the reform.

·       Proposing mitigation measures to address social, environmental, and economic impacts.

·       Suggesting mechanisms for stakeholder engagement and public communication throughout the reform process.

·       Recommending monitoring and evaluation frameworks to track the progress and outcomes of the reform.

·       Incorporating lessons learned from successful reform initiatives in other countries or regions with similar socio-economic conditions.

Deliverable: Comprehensive Action Plan for Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reform.

Activity 3. Stakeholder Engagement and Stakeholder Workshop

The Consultant shall engage stakeholders effectively, build consensus on reform strategies, and enhance capacity for implementing fossil fuel subsidy reforms. The activity includes:

·       Organizing a stakeholder workshop to present the complete report and discuss implementation strategies.

·       Developing workshop materials that clearly communicate the benefits of reform, potential challenges, and proposed mitigation measures.

·       Using participatory methodologies to gather feedback on the proposed reform scenarios and build consensus around the reform plan.

·       Developing targeted capacity-building training modules for key government agencies on impact assessment methodologies, reform scenario modelling, and best practices in subsidy reform implementation.

Deliverables: Workshop materials and workshop report summarizing outcomes, feedback, and recommendations for future actions; Capacity-building training modules and materials.

TENTATIVE WORKPLAN AND TIMEFRAME

The selected expert or a consulting firm will implement the assignment through regular field missions combined with a remote work. If necessary, identify the needs in complementary short-term expertise.